Forecast Model of Civil Aviation Passenger Transportation Volume Based on System Dynamics

摘要：

In order to resolve the traditional forecasting methods which do not consider the factors affecting the civil aviation passenger transportation volume, this paper sets up system dynamic model to forecast civil aviation passenger transportation volume. This model can consider the main influence factors and set up scientific linking between these factors. It will help us make reasonable and scientific decision. The proposed model is also verified by simulation using statistical data and used to forecast the civil aviation passenger transportation volume in China in the next 10 years. The result shows that the model is effective and feasible.

作者: TIAN Jun gai XU Hong jun

作者单位: Sino-Europe college Civil Aviation University of China Tianjin, China Economy& Management College Civil Aviation University of China Tianjin, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Conference on Management and Service Science(2011年第五届管理与服务科学国际会议 MASS 2011)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2011-08-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）