Prediction of Agricultural Water Demand Based on GM(1,1) Model in Irrigation Region
The modeling principle of grey theory and the recognition method of model parameter were presented. A grey GM(1,1) model was established based on the data of certain irrigation regional agricultural water from 2002 to 2008. The precision test of residual error examination and posterior difference examination showed that the fitting precision reached 98%. The model was applied to the prediction of agricultural water demand from 2009 to 2011. The result indicates that this grey model used in the agricultural water demand prediction conforms to its grey characteristic. The model has the advantages of good versatility, few requirements of data, and moderate computation quantity, and the result accords with the practical condition.
Guanghui WEI Liang MA Feng LIU
School of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi City, Xinjia Division of Personnel, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi City, Xinjiang Province, China Division of Development & Planning, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi City, Xinjiang Province
国际会议
International Conference on Water Resources Management and Engineering(水资源管理与工程国际会议)
郑州
英文
12-14
2011-07-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）