Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow in Be River Catchment, Vietnam
A study of Be catchment was carried out to quantify the expected impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multimodel ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed by ensemble four GCMs (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1, and HadCM3) which showed good performance for Be catchment through evaluation of statistics between 14 GCMs control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly level. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a physically based distributed hydrological model, was used to investigate the impacts on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the daily streamflow well, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.78 for Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at both daily and monthly scale. Their difference in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios was also investigated. Results indicate a 1.01-2.93℃ increase in annual temperature and a 3 to -20% changes in seasonal precipitation corresponded to a change in streamflow of about 3 to -20%. The large decrease in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.
Dao Nguyen Khoi Tadashi Suetsugi
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering.University of Yamanashi 4-3-11 Takeda, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8511, Japan
国际会议
International Conference on Water Resources Management and Engineering(水资源管理与工程国际会议)
郑州
英文
69-74
2011-07-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）