An Econometric Modeling Approach to Short-term Crude Oil Price Forecasting
In the competitive petroleum markets,oil price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers.This paper develops a structural econometric model of the Brent crude spot price using the explanatory variable of defined relative inventory and OPEC production to analyze and forecast short-run oil price.A Hodrick-Prescott filter method presented obtains the relative inventory variables caused by the short-run supply and demand fluctuations in the crude oil market.A case study using the proposed method is provided,and the results indicate that the model developed in this work is helpful to industry and government in making oil-related decisions and investigating the changes in inventory and OPEC production on price.
LI Weiqi MA Linwei DAI Yaping LIU Pei
School of Automation,Beijing Institute of Technology University,Beijing 100081,P.R.China State Key Laboratory of Power Systems,Department of Thermal Engineering,Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Cen State Key Laboratory of Power Systems,Department of Thermal Engineering,Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Cen
国际会议
The 30th Chinese Control Conference(第三十届中国控制会议)
烟台
英文
1-4
2011-07-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）