Time-Varying Analysis Model of Monitoring Data in Dam Storage Period

摘要：

Considering the unstable monitoring data and the changed dam behavior in storage period, the forgotten factor is introduced in the traditional statistical model for solving the model parameters, and a forgotten matrix is established to give prominence to the contributions of recent values. Then the timevarying analysis model is set up for monitoring data in dam storage period. Case analysis shows that the model parameters can be periodic updated with the changes of storage state and the accuracy of fitting and forecasting are better than the traditional statistical model, so it is more suitable for analyzing the monitoring data in storage period.

作者: Li Ziyang Zhou Yongjun Yuan Hui Xiang Yan

作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and HydraulicEngineering, Nanjing, 210029 Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Bureau, Hangzhou, 310000

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: International Symposium on Hydraulic Physical Modeling and Field Investigation(2010 水工模型试验和原型观测技术国际研讨会)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 592-596

在线出版日期: 2010-09-13（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）