A Real-Time Generator-Angle Prediction Method based on the Modified Grey Verhulst Model

摘要：

A novel curve fitting method based on the grey Verhulst model for perturbed trajectory prediction of post-fault rotor angle is presented in this paper.For avoiding self-error in the model,the unbiased grey model is realized.An error correction scheme is proposed for improving the prediction precision by using two new coming phasor measurements to predict the error.Compared with the trigonometric function and the auto regression model,the proposed method has better prediction effects.Numerical simulations are conducted in IEEE 39-bus system and the China Southern Power Grid to test the effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that the modified grey Verhulst model works better than the original grey Verhulst model both for the stable and unstable cases.

关键词： Post-fault Rotor-Angle Trajectory Prediction:Grey Verhulst Model:Phsor Measurement Unit:Wide-area Measurement system:Curve fitting

作者: Hui Deng Jinquan Zhao Yongjun Liu Xiaochen Wu

作者单位: College of Energy & Electrical Engineering Hohai University Nanjing,China Science Research Institute China Southern Power Grid Co.Guangzhou,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies(第四届电力设施管制、重建及能源技术国际会议 DRPT 2011)

会议地点: 威海

会议语种:英文

页码: 179-184

在线出版日期: 2011-07-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）