Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction and Its Application in Early-warning System of Power Systems Security and Stability

摘要：

With the growth of wind power penetration,the study and application of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting which is suitable for on-line early-warning system is of great importance,which could improve the grids receptiveness,security and stability.Firstly,an ultra-short-term wind power forecasting model is established based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model.Secondly,considering the requirements of on-line early-warning system,a technique of on-line computing white noise sequence is discussed.And then the way of improving the adaptability is proposed.Thirdly,the applications of the proposed forecasting method in on-line early-warning system are designed.Finally,taking Ningxia wind farms operation data as example,a comparison is taken between persistence forecasting method and the proposed method.And the validity of the proposed method is proved.

关键词： ARIMA:ultra-short-term:wind power forecasting on-line:security and stability assessment

作者: Chang Kang Shi Jiafeng Li Xiaoyu Chen Yong Xue Feng Xie Chuanzhi Song Xiaofang Song Dongkuo Ding Maosheng Zhang Jun Xiang Li

作者单位: State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Nanjing,China Ningxia Electric Power Co.Yinchuan,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies(第四届电力设施管制、重建及能源技术国际会议 DRPT 2011)

会议地点: 威海

会议语种:英文

页码: 682-687

在线出版日期: 2011-07-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）