Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to Load Forecasting Collaboration

摘要：

This paper proposes a collaborative load forecasting method based on maximum entropy principle.Taking the expectation and second order central moment of forecasting results into account and using the maximum entropy principle,the load forecasting method receives the probability distribution function of the forecasted values and obtains the final high,middle and low forecasting scheme based on the probability theory.Based on this method,three applications in load forecasting are introduced in this paper.Case studies have shown applications of this method can take the affection of the conflicts among different forecasting path into account in forecasting,resulting in higher precision of load forecasting.

关键词： Load Forecasting:Maximum Entropy Principle Multi-route:Integrated model

作者: Jun XIAO Xuan ZHANG Binshan XU

作者单位: Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University Tianjin,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies(第四届电力设施管制、重建及能源技术国际会议 DRPT 2011)

会议地点: 威海

会议语种:英文

页码: 1607-1612

在线出版日期: 2011-07-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）