Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC):Integrated Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Safety Analysis
The concept of “margin has a long history in nuclear licensing and in the codification of good engineering practices. However, some traditional applications of “margin have been carried out for surrogate scenarios (such as design basis scenarios), without regard to the actual frequencies of those scenarios, and have been carried out in a systematically conservative fashion. In the RISMC project, which is part of the Department of Energy’s “Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRSP), we are developing a risk-informed characterization of safety margin. Beginning with the traditional discussion of “margin in terms of a “load (a physical challenge to system or component function) and a “capacity (the capability of that system or component to accommodate the challenge), we are developing the capability to characterize probabilistic load and capacity spectra, reflecting both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in system response. For example, the probabilistic load spectrum will reflect the frequency of challenges of a particular severity. Such a characterization is required if decision-making is to be informed optimally. However, in order to enable the quantification of probabilistic load spectra, existing analysis capability needs to be extended. Accordingly, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is working on a nextgeneration safety analysis capability whose design will allow for much more efficient parameter uncertainty analysis, and will enable a much better integration of reliability-related and phenomenology-related aspects of margin.
Margin risk-informed safety analysis uncertainty
R. W. Youngblood V. A. Mousseau D. L. Kelly T.-N. Dinh
Idaho National Laboratory Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA
国际会议
上海
英文
2229-2239
2010-10-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）