A Method of Collaborative Multi-path Load Forecasting Based on Maximum Entropy Principle

摘要：

This paper introduces synergetic theory and proposes multi-path load forecasting automatically coordinated approach based on the maximum entropy principle. Taking the expectation and second order central moment of forecasted results into account and using the maximum entropy principle，this synergetic load forecasting method receives the probability distribution function of the forecasted values and obtains the final high,middle and low forecasting scheme based on the probability theory. Case study has shown the model and method mentioned above can take the affection of the conflicts among different forecasting path into account in forecasting,resulting in higher precision of load forecasting

关键词： Collaborative Multi-path Load Forecasting Maximum Entropy Principle

作者: Jun XIAO Xuan ZHANG Lin HE Li-peng LIN

作者单位: Key Laboratory of Power System Simulation and Control of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University,Ti Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin,300010 China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010年中国国际供电会议(CICED 2010)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 36-41

在线出版日期: 2010-09-13（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）