Application of Groundwater Regime Stochastic Simulation in Longkeng Water Source of Songyuan City, Jilin Province

摘要：

Time-series analysis theory is applied to analyze and predict the dynamic variation of groundwater in the area of Longkeng water source in Songyuan of Jilin Province, China. The trend component of groundwater level dynamic variation is picked up by polynomial calibration, the periodic component is extracted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulated by using auto regression (AR) modeL Finally, a forecasting model is established through linear superposition of the three components. The simulating precision of the model is verified in this paper. According to the simulation analysis, the seasonal and long-term variation in groundwater level and its regularity characteristics are revealed. The prediction indicates that a continuing decline of groundwater level exists in Longkeng water source area which must be controlled in time.

关键词： time-series groundwater regime stochastic simulation Longkeng water sowce

作者: Fang Zhang Xiao Chang-lai Ma Zhe Lin Ya-ju

作者单位: College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University JLU Changchun, P.R. China Songyuan Water Resources Management Office SWRMO Songyuan, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 3rd International Conference on Environmental and Computer Science(2010年第三届环境与计算机科学国际会议 ICECS 2010)

会议地点: 昆明

会议语种:英文

页码: 144-149

在线出版日期: 2010-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）