Research on Flight Mishap 1OOOO-Hour-Rate Prediction Method Based on Markov Chain

摘要：

A flight mishap 10000-Hour-Rate prediction method, which is based on Markov chain analysis, is proposed. Firstly, Markov chain model of flight mishap 10000-Hour-Rate series is established which can use the state transition law of Markov chain to depict the fluctuant characteristic contained in the historical data. Then through extrapolating the model the flight mishap 10000-HourRate in future year can be predicted. The experiment example on U.S. Air Force shows that the method is precise, simple, and easy to be understood for flight mishap 10000-Hour- Rate prediction problem.

关键词： Flight mishap 1OOOO-Hour-Rate Markov chain Prediction method

作者: Gan Xusheng Duanmu Jingshun Cong Wei

作者单位: Xijing College, Xian Shaanxi, 710123, China Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xian Shaanxi, 710038,China Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xian, Shaanxi, 710038,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 3rd International Conference on Environmental and Computer Science(2010年第三届环境与计算机科学国际会议 ICECS 2010)

会议地点: 昆明

会议语种:英文

页码: 473-475

在线出版日期: 2010-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）