On the scenario simulation of Xinjiang Production of water resources based on the IPAT Model

摘要：

This document explains and demonstrates which should be taken in Xinjiang mode of development in the current water shortage situation.Using scenario analysis method and IPAT model (Impact,Population,Affluence,Technolog) ,the article demonstrates seven possible development scenarios and analyzes each scenarios for the future use of water resources in oasis.By comparing and analysising,the scenario 4 (accelerated economic growth,adjusting the industrial structure,strengthen water-saving water consumption of the weak control) and the scenario 7 (accelerated economic growth,adjusting the industrial structure,strengthen water-saving water consumption of the strong control) can be the most executive mode.This document will play a positive guiding significance in the actual work of water resources in Xinjiang Oasis on some degree.

关键词： IPAT model water resources scenario simulation

作者: Zhang Hong-li Guo Yong-qi

作者单位: School of Economic &Trade Shihezi University,Shihezi City 832003,Xinjiang,P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference of Environment Materials and Environment Management(2010年环境材料与环境管理国际学术会议 EMEM 2010)

会议地点: 哈尔滨

会议语种:英文

页码: 529-535

在线出版日期: 2010-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）