Travel Time Prediction for Bus Rapid Transmit using a Statistics-Based Probabilistic Method

摘要：

The Bus Rapid Transmit (BRT) system is one of the rapid development forms of transit priority in China. In this paper, a probabilistic method is proposed to predict the travel time for BRT by analyzing historical traffic-data. The line I of BRT in Jinan, China, which has been equipped with GPS units, is selected to provide the collected data. The time of day is split into consecutive time intervals which will be supposed as subsets. For each of the subsets, expectations, variances and probability distributions of travel times exist, and demonstrate the dispersions and uncertainties. This method is put forward to present the probability distributions of travel time. The confidence intervals corresponding to the given confidence levels can be further obtained. Finally, the confidence intervals combined with the expectations of travel time, will be the feasible and informative predictions.

关键词： Bus Rapid Transmit (BRT) probabilistic method probability distribution statistics travel time prediction

作者: Guojun Huang Jianping Xing Lingguo Meng Feng Li Luping Ma

作者单位: School of Information Science and Engineering Shandong University Jinan, China School of Physics Shandong University Jinan, China Center of Bus Rapid Transmit Public Traffic General Company Jinan, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 2nd International Conference on Signal Processing System(2010年信号处理系统国际会议 ICSPS 2010)

会议地点: 大连

会议语种:英文

页码: 457-460

在线出版日期: 2010-07-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）