A Stochastic Analysis on Occupant Evacuation Time under Emergency Conditions
This paper presents a study on uncertainty of occupant evacuation time under emergency conditions. Some uncertainties influencing on emergency evacuation are analyzed based on three factors, namely emergency evolution dynamics, human behaviors under emergency conditions and environment. Fire emergency condition is presented as case study. Uncertainty of fire detection and alarm time is studied with consideration of lognormal fire growth rates and other random variables. The sum of pre-movement and movement time is simulated by considering different normal pre-movement time. Finally, stochastic analysis on occupant evacuation time is analyzed by coupling uncertainty of fire detection, alarm, pre-movement and movement time. The results show that occupant evacuation time is a variable especially influenced by a large number of uncertainties.
probability distribution evacuation time fire detection time pre-movement time emergency conditions
Chu Guanquan Wang Jinhui
Waterborne Transportation Institute, Ministry of Transport Beijing, China College of Ocean Environment and Engineering Shanghai Maritime University Shanghai, China
国际会议
北京
英文
41-44
2011-08-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）