The Prediction of Energy Consumption Based on GM(1,1) Model in Hebei Province
According to the raw data of 1990-2009 total energy consumption in Hebei province, This article build a Grey Prediction System GM (1,1). Research indicates that the total energy consumption in Hebei province have increased in exponential way. The fitting accuracy of this predicting model is 92.30％, development coefficient reaches 0.04.So the predicting model GM (1,1) is suitable for the prediction model for long-term economic forecast. During period of the Twelfth Five-year Plan, The total energy consumption in Hebei province is expected to increase with 8.97％ rate, and it will reach 43601.16 10000 tons of SCE by 2015.
Grey forecasting Energy consumption GM (1,1)
LIU Lijun ZHANG Rufei
Economic and Trade Institute, Shijiazhuang university of economics, P.R. China, 50031 Economic and Trade Institute, Shijiazhuang university of economics, P.R. China, 050031
国际会议
烟台
英文
242-246
2011-08-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）