Relationship of Sino-US Trade Balance and RMB Exchange Rate
Based on annual data from 1994 to 2005, the paper showed that RMB exchange rate appreciation have influence on China-US trade balance in the long run to a certain extend but not the main reason for China-US trade imbalances through cointegration analysis and Granger causality test. Development of U.S. economy and domestic policy in U.S. can be said to the main reason for China-US trade surplus. In the current economic situation, China-US trade surplus is still one of the important engines of economic development. So U.S. economic downturn leading to the decline in our exports has to be guarded against. On the other hand, the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation can be utilized to adjust our economic structure and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading.
Sino-US trade balance RMB real exchange rate VAR model Cointegration Granger causality test
WANG Lin
School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, P.R.China, 430070 School of Economics and Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuchang Branch, P.R.China, 430070
国际会议
烟台
英文
360-366
2011-08-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）