Analysis on Relation between Short-term Foreign Debt and Currency Crisis——Based on Emerging Market Countries in Latin American
Based on the statistics data of the four emerging market countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela between 1970 and 2008, via analyzing the linear model of the ratio of short term external debt against foreign exchange reserve and economic aggregate, the following theory is proposed: There is cointegration among the models of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. The ratio of the short term external debt against foreign exchange reserve has negative correlation with GDP economic aggregate. The adjustment is small from short-term volatility to long-term equilibrium in the model. The following conclusion is made: In the absence of effective debt management situation, the continuous rising ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserve can increase the probability of currency crises. When the crisis happens, the economy needs a long time to recover.
Currency Mismatch Currency Crisis Emerging Marketing countries
ZHU Enyang HOU Tieshan
School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China, 116024
国际会议
大连
英文
250-255
2011-06-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）