Transmission Rate Estimation for Chlamydia Infection among Young Women
Chlamydia infection (CT) is caused by the bacterium, Chlamydia trachomatis, and is one of the most commonly reported sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States. CT is a silent disease with the majority of infected people having no symptoms. It can progress to serious reproductive and other health problems with both short-term and longterm consequences. CT can be accurately diagnosed through lab tests and then effectively treated with antibiotics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the US Preventive Service Task Force recommend annual CT screening for sexually active women 25 years of age or younger, older women with risk factors, and all pregnant women. However, there is no evidence-based cost-effectiveness analysis on the optimality of this strategy, as compared to alternative screening schedules. Clinical studies have shown that CT incidence rate varies over the continuum of age spectrum and that first-time infection and reinfection risks should be differentiated. Considering these facts, one would think that an age-specific screening method might be cost-efficient in identifying newly acquired CT. In order to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of any agedependent screening strategy, age-dependent CT transmission rate must be accurately estimated. In this paper, we develop a discrete-time system dynamic model for CT transmission and screening. We divide the population into groups based on their infectious status (i. e. , susceptible-infected, or susceptibleinfected-recovered). Sexual activity and transmission rate per sex depend on age. We estimate the CT transmission rate with a fully monitored study cohort. This estimation is essential to full-scale screening strategy evaluation and optimization.
discrete-time dynamic model transmission rate Chlamydia
Yu Teng Nan Kong Wanzhu Tu
Weldon School of Biomedical Engineering, Purdue University, USA Division of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, ndiana University, USA
国际会议
The Institute Industrial Engineera Asian Conference 2011(2011年国际工业工程师协会亚洲会议)
上海
英文
199-206
2011-06-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）