A NEW METHOD AND METRIC FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Quantitative risk analysis provides practitioners a deeper understanding of the risks in their projects. However, the existing methods for impact assessment are inaccurate and the metrics for risk prioritization also can not properly prioritize the risks for certain cases. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring risk impact by using AHP. We also propose a new indicator, risk intensity (RI), to prioritize the risks of a project. Compared with the widely used metric Risk Exposure (RE), the contours of RI show a convex pattern whereas the contours of RE show a concave pattern. RI allows practitioners weight probability and risk impact differently and can better satisfy the needs of risk prioritization. Through a case study, we found that RI could better prioritize the risks than RE.
Risk prioritization Risk metrics Risk exposure Risk intensity Risk impact assessment Risk management
Peng Zhou Hareton K. N. Leung
Department of Computing, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
国际会议
13th International Conference on Enterprise Information System(第13届企业信息系统国际会议 ICEIS 2011)
北京
英文
98-106
2011-06-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）