Analysis of Coal Demand in the Electricity Industry Based on State Space Model
Electricity industry has played an important role in the coal consumption system all along. With the implementation of policies to promote economic growth, demand for coal in the Chinese mainland has increased steadily, and the contradiction between coal and electricity as well as the tension of power generation coal induced by the contradiction has become one of the major obstacles constraining Chinese energy development. In this paper, demand for coal is regarded as objects to study the variation rule of coal demand in Chinese electricity industry, and then the state space model of coal demand in the electricity industry is constructed based on the modern control theory, and finally the Kalman filtering technique is applied to simulate the model to predict the development tendency of coal demand in the electricity industry. The conclusions are drawn as follows: the application of state space model to the decomposition of coal demand in the electricity industry, including long-term trend, periodic, seasonal and irregular items, provides valuable information for analysis of coal demand; Kalman filtering is used to solve the state space model of coal demand in the electricity industry, and the results show that the model is of fitting well, and has a good reliability for recent prediction; From the prediction results of coal demand in the electricity industry, it can be concluded that coal supply will be in more shortage in the next five years, and it is difficult to change completely coaldominated energy structure in China, and the factors affecting coal demand need to be studied to improve the use efficiency of resources. The paper has significance of important theoretical and practical application for the development prediction of coal and electricity industry and policy-making.
Electricity industry Coal demand State space model Kalman filter
YAN Wei
CREE of Shandong University of Science and Technology Shandong Qingdao PRC 266510 Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control Qingdao Shandong PRC 266510
国际会议
2010 International Conference on Mine Hazards Prevention and Control(第二届矿山灾害预防与控制国际学术会议 ICMHPC)
青岛
英文
722-728
2010-10-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）