Modeling and Application of the Sales of Automobile Enterprise Based on Combination Forecasting Theory
The basic principle of combination forecasting is to give the proper weight combination into a single composite model from the results of each single forecasting model. Therefore, in the process of combination, each single models advantages strengthened, and disadvantages weaken. Combination forecasting model has higher accuracy and reliability by integrating useful information of each single model losing in the each single forecasting model. According to the historical data of an automobile enterprise, the paper respectively makes use of selfadaptive filtering, multiple regression, triple exponential smoothing and grey system to establish single forecasting model, and allocate the proper weight by using standard deviation method. Based on combination forecasting theory, the Sales Combination Forecasting Model of the enterprise has been established and we apply this kind of model to forecast the sales during the following 6 years.
ombination forecasting model automobile sales Standard Deviation
ZHANG Chuan-tao DONG Yu-de CAO Wen-gang YIN Ping CUI Yi-zhang YAO Pei LI Ning WANG Ling-lan
School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei,230009,China Marketing Department,Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co.,Ltd.,Hefei,230022,China
国际会议
长春
英文
129-132
2010-08-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）