A dynamic data driven system for flight delay estimation
As a stochastic and dynamic system, flight delays estimation, including arrival delays and delay propagation, is analyzed diffusely. A couple of models are developed to predict the flight delays, by which the airways can adjust their schedules. However, there are still many flaws because of the uncertainty delay models themselves and the randomness of the system. In this paper the delay state-space model is established according corresponding specification of China, and a framework of flight delay and its propagation estimation based on dynamic data-driven application systems paradigm is proposed, which involves delay model, measurement model, data assimilation etc. The dynamic real-time flight data was feed back to the estimation system to correct the computational errors using statistical tools or approaches. Simulations driven by real flight data demonstrate that the predictive ability of the proposed state-space model was improved observably, especially the result is not sensitive to the number of sequence flights.
flight delay delay propagation dynamic data driven state estimate data assimilation
Xue-Feng YAN Hai-Yan CHEN Xiao-Lin HU
College of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, N Department of Computer Science, Georgia State University, 34 Peachtree Street, Suit 1450, Atlanta, G
国际会议
The Third International Conference on Modelling and Simulation(第三届国际建模、计算、仿真、优化及其应用学术会议 ICMS 2010)
无锡
英文
83-88
2010-06-04（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）