Coal Mine Accident Prediction with the Model Coupling Grey Theory and Markov Chain

摘要：

Grey theory is suitable for the forecast of the data sequence which has exponentially change regularity. And Markov chain is usually applied to predict the fluctuant dynamic process. Their predominance can be utilized and the prediction precision can be enhanced if they are coupled commendably. A model is built which couples grey theory and Markov chain. In the coupling model, grey theory is used to predict the data sequence trend, and Markov chain is used to forecast the error sequence of grey theory prediction to modify the grey prediction outcome. The coupling model is applied to predict the death toll of coal mine accident of China. The case study shows that the prediction precision of coupling model is higher than the model of onefold grey model. That is to say, the model coupled with grey theory and Markov chain is available for the forecast of death toll of coal mine accident.

关键词： forecast theory Markov chain coupling model accident forecast

作者: DONG Sihui

作者单位: School of Civil and Safety Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, Liaoning, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2010 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2010 安全科学与技术国际会议)

会议地点: 杭州

会议语种:英文

页码: 29-34

在线出版日期: 2010-10-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）