New Method for Risk Evaluation of Extended Reach Wells
Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risks. Forecasting and understanding the various risks of extended reach drilling (ERD) has been the common concern of more and more drilling contractors and drilling workers. Nowadays there are few reports on how to quantitatively analyze drilling risk for extended reach wells (ERWs). Based on the monte carlo theory, a new method for risk evaluation of extended reach well is proposed in this paper. Through investigating various major risk factors for ERW, a comprehensive evaluation model for evaluating ERD risk is established. Then data of evaluation indices are gathered by use of Delphi method. Finally according to the theory of monte carlo method, drilling risk for ERW can be evaluated. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with high ratio of horizontal displacement to vertical depth in the Liuhua LH11-1 oilfield, South China Sea, China. On the basis of this method, drilling risk for Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is 51.4％, providing important rational and scientific information for the decision-makers.
Extended reach well oil drilling risk evaluation Monte Carlo method petroleum industry
ZHANG Hui GAO Deli HAO Zhiwei TANG Haixiong
College of Petroleum Engineering, University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China CNOOC Shenzhen Branch, Shenzhen 518067, Guangdong, China
国际会议
The 2010 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2010 安全科学与技术国际会议)
杭州
英文
212-216
2010-10-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）