Method for Risk Analysis of Gas Explosion Based on Bayesian Networks

摘要：

For preventing and controlling gas explosion accident in coal mines effectively, based on the basic principles of Bayesian networks and characteristics of gas explosion, studied the method for risk analysis of gas explosion using Bayesian networks. Proposed the method to build Bayesian networks for risk analysis of gas explosion, and discussed the method of transforming fault tree logical structure into Bayesian networks, then used Bayesian network to express the causal relationships among the events of causing accident, determined probability of each basic event by Delphi method, applied the Bayesian networks probabilistic reasoning to obtain the probability of accident, and the probability importance, structural importance, critical importance and the posterior probability of each basic event by calculating the conditional probabilities. Use case study to illustrate the process of applying this method, the results show that it is an applicable and feasible method with intuitive form and efficient calculation for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of gas explosion in coal mines.

关键词： gas explosion Bayesian networks risk analysis

作者: DONG Dingwen LI Shugang CHANG Xintan

作者单位: School of Energy Engineering, Xian University of Science and Technology, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2010 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2010 安全科学与技术国际会议)

会议地点: 杭州

会议语种:英文

页码: 262-267

在线出版日期: 2010-10-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）