Combined Forecast of Runway Safety Performance for Civil Aviation of China

摘要：

In order to facilitate decision-makers and managers to understand the trend and objectively be aware of China civil aviation future status of the runway safety, Grey and BP neural network theory were used in the forecast respectively and a Shapley combined forecast method based on the weight distribution was advanced with the past 11 years of China civil aviation runway safety data. The results show that the forecasts may provide a theoretical basis for the civil aviation accident prevention, and the runway safety occurrence number per million departure/landings remains high which needs active intervention. Grey forecast and BP neural network forecast are reliable methods. The accuracy of their combined forecast has been proved to be effective for forecasting the future of civil aviation runway safety in China with high reference value.

关键词： runway safety combined forecast grey theory BP neural network

作者: HUO Zhiqin RU Yi HAN Songchen

作者单位: School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Jiangs Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited, Beijing 100621, China School of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Jiangs

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2010 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2010 安全科学与技术国际会议)

会议地点: 杭州

会议语种:英文

页码: 2016-2023

在线出版日期: 2010-10-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）