The Assessment of the Risk of Investment Projects Based on System Dynamics

摘要：

From the point of the cash flows, we use the systematic, comprehensive and dynamic conception to analyze the critical factors influencing the project investment risk and to establish the system dynamics model of cash flows, then analyze the model simulation and analyze the experimental results. This paper uses risk-adjusted discount rate method to yield the project risk-adjusted discount rate according to the approximate value p of investment project, then get to the adjusted net present value according to the risk-adjusted discount rate using system dynamics. The application of system dynamics methodology in project investment risk assessment is helpful to research the risk of the project and discusses the influence on the project which the risk factors cause to make the investment project risk of enterprises more reliable.

关键词： system dynamics risk-adjusted discount rate method cash flows net present value risk assessment

作者: ZHANG Hui CHEN Liang

作者单位: Department of Business Administration, School of Graduate, Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125 School of Public Administration and Law,Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Risk and Reliability Management(2010年风险与可靠性管理国际会议RRM 2010)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 269-275

在线出版日期: 2010-10-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）