Using Fuzzy-Delphi Technique to Determine the Concession Period in BOT Projects
BOT projects are affected by several risks and uncertainties.One of the most important issues in this type of contract is to determine the length of concession period considering these uncertainties.The previous studies have developed several models to determine the concession period.However,the uncertainties are not taking into account in most of the previous works.Moreover,none of the previous researches has the capability to aggregate the opinions of different experts being involved in a project regarding the values of the uncertain input parameters.In this research,a Fuzzy-Delphi technique is implemented to determine the length of concession period considering uncertainties.l!sing the proposed Fuzzy-Delphi technique,the values of different uncertain factors affecting a BOT project is determined considering opinions of a group of experts.The NPV value is calculated considering the resulted aggregated values of uncertain input parameters.Finally,the concession period is determined using fuzzy approach.A case study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology.It is shown that the concession period is determined more effectively using the proposed approach.
component Concession Period Fuzzy-Delphi Technique BOT Risk Management
Khanzadi Mostafa Nasirzadeh Farnad Alipour Majid
Iran University of Science and Technology School of civil engineering Tehran,Iran Payame Noor University Tehran,Iran
国际会议
重庆
英文
442-446
2010-09-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）