XA STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BY CHINAS EXPORT STRUCTURE BASED ON THE IMPROVED GRAVITY MODEL

摘要：

Using the panel data from 1992-2007 between China and its 30 trading partners, the export ratio of manufactured goods and primary products exports and the proportion of export of capital-and technology-intensive products to all products, this study integrates COS index of import and export similarity into an extended gravity model and then uses regression analysis on Chinese export structure and trade flows to predict export potential between China and its trading partners in future. The results show that most explanatory variables have high statistical significance which indicates the export scale of China and its trading partners are determined by the GDP level of countries involved, Chinese export sectors, geographical distance and Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Based on the results, we attempt recommendations on how to improve Chinas export trade and optimize export structure.

关键词： export structure trade gravity model COS index

作者: Hong Fang Zhe Feng Yu Yin

作者单位: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Tneth International Conference on Industrial Management(第十届工业管理国际会议 ICIM 2010)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 637-643

在线出版日期: 2010-09-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）