Sequential Observation and Selection with Value-Based Payoffs: An Experiment Study
Secretary Problem (SP) is labeled as a decision task of sequential observation and selection, which describes the dynamic decision process where relevant information of alternatives is available sequentially, and the essential decision task is whether to choose the current alternative and stop searching further information or to abort the current alternative and wait for the next one. Prior studies focused on how many alternatives the decision maker should observe to maximize the probability of selecting the optimal alternative under the full rationality assumptions, without considering the effects of noise information on decision-making behavior. In this paper, two types of the alternatives noise information, variance of the alternatives value (VOAV) and the gap of the conjoint alternatives value (GOCAV) were proposed to affect the number of observations under bounded rationality assumptions, and these was tested by laboratory experiments. The results of our experiments reveal that there is a negative correlation between VOVA and the number of observations, but a positive correlation between the GOCAV and the intention to accept. In addition, the decision-makers often overestimate their ability to target the best with obvious overconfidence bias.
Sequential search optimal stopping noise information number of observation experiment study
WANG Yuan ZHONG Tong XU Yi-feng
School of management, Xian JiaoTong University, Xian, China School of management, Xian Polytechni School of management, Xian Polytechnic University, Xian, China
国际会议
北京
英文
394-397
2010-08-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）