Research on Emergency Evacuation Traffic Trip Generation Forecasting Based on Logistic Regression

摘要：

This paper puts forward a method based on Logistic regression of emergency evacuation traffic trip generation forecasting model. Based on analysis of Xiamen residents earthquake evacuation survey data, the software of applied statistic SPSS could establish emergency evacuation traffic trip generation forecasting model by Logistic regression. This model could predict the probability of all evacuation modes of residents to obtain the better emergency processing plan of traffic evacuation in earthquake disasters. Subsequently, for the purpose of making the more reasonable and effective of city emergency management plan, the test sample would be simulated to accuracy and fitting degree of the prediction model result.

关键词： Traffic Evacuation Evacuation Travel Demand Logistic Regression Model SPSS

作者: Fanliang Bu Qingmei Xie

作者单位: Department of Engineering of Security &Protection System Chinese Peoples Public Security University Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 IEEE International Conference on Emergency Management and Management Sciences(2010 IEEE应急管理与管理科学国际会议 ICEMMS)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 504-507

在线出版日期: 2010-08-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）