Cointegration Analysis with Variable Structure of Chinas Coal Consumption and Economic Growth
The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been a well-studied topic in the area of economic research. Based on the theory of structural breaks, we analyze the data generating process of coal consumption and economic growth in China, verify that the time series data is generated by the unit root process, find the mean structural breakpoints and trend structural breakpoints, and reveal that there is strong correlation between the occurrence of breakpoints and the changes of the political and economic situation of the nation in the sample period. In this paper, on the basis of structural break analysis, we also use structural break cointegration theory to construct a cointegration model with variable structure. This model reflects the long-term equilibrium relationship between coal consumption and economic growth. The empirical result shows that this model has strong practical forecast performance.
coal consumption economic growth structural break cointegration model
Zhang Zhaoxiang Wang Xiaosong
School of Management, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai, 264005,China School of Engineering, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai,264005, China
国际会议
烟台
英文
272-278
2010-08-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）