会议专题

Space-time density estimation of Tropical cyclones

In this paper, the purpose is to get the estimation of tropical cyclones in northwestern pacific genesis probability function by using the nonparametric kernel smoothing method which makes no assumption on the prior distribution form of observations and is different from parametric methods used traditionally. By choosing the different bandwidth, the fitting probability density estimation is different. From the comparison, the conclusion obtained is that the smoothing parameter of kernel is very critical and the optimal is very important. The optimal bandwidth value can be perfectly fitting the true density of tropical cyclones genesis. Seasonal variability or month variability is not considered in this study.

tropical cyclone northwestern pacific genesis kernel density estimation

Fu Meifen Yu Yong Jiang

College of Mathematics & Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 21 Meteorological Science Institute of Fujian Province, Fuzhou, 350001, China

国际会议

2010 International Conference on Probability and Statistics of the International Institute for General Systems Studies(国际一般系统理论研究会中国概率统计学会第二届学术会议IIGSS-CPS2010)

南京

英文

161-166

2010-07-29(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)