Predicting Guangxi Provincial Total Value of Foreign Trade

摘要：

This paper examines the impact of the cooperation between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China on Guangxi Provincial total value of foreign trade. The study uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to fit the total value of foreign trade with total retailing of social consuming goods and urban per capita disposable income, then leads in dummy to fit total retailing of social consuming goods, and applies Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) to fit urban per capita disposable income. And then predicts the value of the three indexes from 2010 to 2012. The thesis analyzes the possible factors that may influence the veracity of the prediction and offers political proposal.

关键词： Total value of foreign trade SEAN GLS Prediction

作者: Ming-Fei Qiu Zhao-Ling Tao

作者单位: College of Mathematics & Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Probability and Statistics of the International Institute for General Systems Studies(国际一般系统理论研究会中国概率统计学会第二届学术会议IIGSS-CPS2010)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 244-247

在线出版日期: 2010-07-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）