Research on Prediction of China Population Development

摘要：

Population system is a typical grey system. According to the latest statistical data of China population development from 1949 to 2009, two grey increment models of discreteness and new initial value are established and used to predict the population of China during the period from 2010 to 2050. Evidence shows that at the end of 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 the total population will reach 1.3409, 1.3690, 1.3930, 1.4311, 1.4591 and 1.4796 billion respectively with these predictive results in agreement with the reality of the population development in China.

关键词： China population discrete grey increment model (DGIM) grey increment model with new initial value (NGIM) prediction of population

作者: MEN Kepei

作者单位: College of Mathematics &Physics Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044, China,

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Probability and Statistics of the International Institute for General Systems Studies(国际一般系统理论研究会中国概率统计学会第二届学术会议IIGSS-CPS2010)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

页码: 369-374

在线出版日期: 2010-07-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）