The Application of Combination Model in Forecasting the Total Number of Health Technical Staffs of Our Country
The total number of health technical staffs of our country was forecasted for projecting health resource and optimizing allocation by combination model, which is the incorporation of the model of Auto Regression Moving Average(ARMA) and Gray Model(GM) The total number of health technical staffs of our country in 2009 and 2010 are expected to be 5076994 and 5149852 respectively. The conclusion is: 1. It is feasible to use the Combination Model to forecast the needs of health manpower. 2. It is needed to change the structure of present health technical staffs. 3. Middle and high level staffs need to be increased.
combination model GM(1 1) model ARMA model forecasting total number of health technical staffs
HAN Chunlei HU Xihou DONG Zhaoju ZHAO Yongjun
School of Health Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, P.R.China, 264003
国际会议
威海
英文
195-201
2010-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）