Based on Grey Markov Model & Qualitative Analysis of Civil Aviation Incidents Prediction

摘要：

Civil aviation incident is an important part of the civil aviation safety research. This paper collected from 2006 to 2009 of Chinas civil aviation incidents data, and integrated it into incident index, made use of GM (1,1) model in the coming years was predicted civil aviation incidents index. And then, the results of the forecast were amended by Markov transition matrix. The last, under the weather and the cause of the accident, machinery, machine three main factors of the development trends through two amendments to the civil aviation incidents index final prediction.

关键词： grey system theory markov transfer matrix civil aviation incidents forecast

作者: YAO Hongguang WU Jing LI Cheng ZHU Li Ping LIN Yan

作者单位: School of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering and Science.P.R.China, 201620 Schoo School of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering and Science.P.R.China, 201620

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 3rd International Institute of Statistics & Management Engineering Symposium(2010 国际统计与管理工程研讨会 IISMES)

会议地点: 威海

会议语种:英文

页码: 1111-1115

在线出版日期: 2010-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）