Logarithmic Demand Function in Tourism Demand Forecasting -Taking Shandong Province as an Example
With the development of international tourism, inbound tourism demand analysis has been a hot topic in the tourism field. The general-to-specific modeling approach is followed to model and forecast the demand for Shandong tourism by residents from the 7major origin countries/regions and the empirical results reveal that the most important factors that determine the demand for Shandong tourism are the costs of tourism in Shandong, the economic condition (measured by the income level) in the origin countries/regions, the costs of tourism in the competing destinations and special events. The demand for Shandong tourism will continue increasing. We can know the trend of by conducting the forecasts of tourism arrivals, on which tourism development policy-making of Shandong rely.
inbound tourism tourism demand demand elasticity forecasting
ZENG Bei
School of Management, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai, P.R.China, 264005
国际会议
威海
英文
60-63
2010-07-24(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)