The Application of ARM A Model in the Development of Fishery -Based on Liaoning Province
Fishery industry is an important component of the agricultural industry in Liaoning Province. The development of the fishery industry plays a significant role in a steady and rapid development of the agricultural economy in Liaoning Province. In this paper, we give the analysis for the annual data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of fishing industry of Liaoning Province from 1978 to 2007.At the same time, the characteristics of fisheries GDP data of Liaoning Province are analyzed by Eviews. The stationary of the series is identified by figure illustration, unit root testing and the figure of auto-correlation and partial autocorrelation function. The series are stationarized by second-order difference. In view of the results we judge the values of Durbin-Watson stat (D.W.) according to Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SC) order determination criteria. Finally, a more appropriate Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is established which provides a reference tool for the short-term prediction of fisheries GDP of Liaoning Province. According to model prediction, the fishery total output value in Liaoning Province will grow continually for several years unless under the serious natural disaster condition.
fisheries GDP stationary ARMA model
LI Ke ZHOU Jing
College of Economic and Management, Shenyang Agriculture University, P.R.China, 110866
国际会议
威海
英文
178-182
2010-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）