An Empirical Study of Relations between Real Estate and Macroeconomy of Shandong Province
This article discusses the relations between the real estate investment in Shandong Province and the provincial economic development. Through co-integration and VAR analyses, we get the following conclusions: Firstly, in the long term, the increase of real estate investment has a positive impact on economic growth; secondly, for a short time, while real estate investment growth rate changes by 1％, the growth rate of GDP of Shandong Province will change by 0.246％; thirdly, a positive unit of fluctuations which the real estate investment meets will generate a long and positive impact on GDP and variance decomposition results also show that the total amount of real estate investment has effect on GDP, but the impact will take some time to appear. So it is necessary to maintain a stable real estate market development, on the other hand, we should see the economic growth of Shandong Province depends on the real estate investment to a high level, which means economy restructuring raised by the central authority of China has a long and rough way to go.
real estate co-integration VAR model impulse response analysis variance decomposition
NI Jie ZHAO Liqiu
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shandong University of Finance, P.R.China, 250014
国际会议
威海
英文
421-425
2010-07-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）