Construction Project Schedule Risk Analysis and Assessment Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method

摘要：

Construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in circumstances of high uncertainty and risk, which are compounded by demanding time constraints. This paper describes an application of Monte Carlo simulation method to consider and quantify uncertainty in construction scheduling. This paper points out the importance of the construction project scheduling risk analysis and assessment from the perspective of contractor and points out the limitations of project management network techniques (CPM/PERT). Based on analyzing the principle of construction project scheduling risk analysis and assessment using Mote Carlo simulation method, the evaluating steps of Mote Carlo simulation method are given. Ultimately, the outcomes of the paper are illustrated by an instance.

关键词： construction project scheduling risk mc risk assessment

作者: Dezhi Jin Zhuofu Wang Xun Liu Jianming Yang Meigui Han

作者单位: Institute of Construction Project Management, Hohai University,Nanjing, China,School of Engineering, Institute of Construction Project Management, Hohai University,Nanjing, China School of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 IEEE International Conference on Advanced Management Science(2010年IEEE高级管理科学国际会 IEEE ICAMS 2010)

会议地点: 成都

会议语种:英文

页码: 597-601

在线出版日期: 2010-07-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）