Can Energy Price Shocks Drive Long-run Technological Progress and Growth?Empirical Evidence from Korea
This study develops a model including real GDP per capita, real prices and quantity of crude oil and pelrolem products imports, and Won/Dollar real rate of exchange. Johansen cointegration test on annual series of 1970-2008 indicates a relationship of cointegration. Further Granger non-causality tests show that real prices of crude oil imports have adverse shor-run but positive long-run effects on Korean economy, and the quantity of crude oil imports has a significantly positive long-run effect. However, both real prices and quantity of petroleum products imports exhibit literally opposite effects. This paper documents empirical evidences for the hypothesis that energy shocks may facilitate long-run endogenous growth of a resource scarce economy.
energy supply constraint oil price shock petroleum imports cointegration granger non-causality
Yu Hong Hong-wei Su
College of International Economics and Trade Jilin University of Finance & Economics Changchun, Chin College of Humanities and Sciences Northeast Normal University Changchun, China
国际会议
成都
英文
656-660
2010-07-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）