Modeling and Prediction of Ionospheric Total Electron Content by Time Series Analysis

摘要：

Precise modeling and accurate prediction for the ionospheric total electron content(TEC) are crucial and remain as a challenge for GPS positioning and navigation, space weather forecast, as well as many other Earth Observation System(EOS). This research develops and analyzes a new prediction technique for the regional ionospheric TEC, based on time series analysis theory using autoregressive model (AR) to perform short-term ionospheric TEC prediction. The predicted TEC were then compared with the TEC measured by IGS, and with TEC from the International Reference Ionosphere(IRI) to assess the performance of the model. Preliminary results show that AR model could well describe the variation trend of the regional ionospheric TEC and has a good short-term performance of the ionospheric TEC prediction. The forecasting methodology based on the time series for the regional ionospheric TEC prediction is feasible.

关键词： Total electron content(TEC) Time Series Analysis AR model prediction of TEC International Reference Ionosphere(IRI)

作者: Xiuhai Li Dazhi GUO Xiuhai LI

作者单位: School of Safety and Resource Engineering China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing) Beijing, Department of Surveying and Mapping Heilongjiang Institute of Engineering and Technology Harbin, Chi

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2nd IEEE International Conference on Advanced Computer Control(第二届先进计算机控制国际会议 ICACC 2010)

会议地点: 沈阳

会议语种:英文

页码: 375-379

在线出版日期: 2010-03-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）