Application of Grey Prediction Theory to Forecast Technology Input within the Chinese High-tech Industries

摘要：

Based on the statistical data, over the period from 2004 to 2008 released by China Statistical Yearbook on High Technology Industry (2009), this paper aims to predict the amount of technology input, mainly including scientists and engineers, funds for science and technology activities within the Chinese hightech industries by the usage of GM (1,1) model with the five items. The result of this empirical study is that the GM (1,1) model established in this paper can fit the amount of technology input which consists of scientists and engineers, funds for science and technology activities within the Chinese high-tech industries. The accuracy of the prediction result from the established GM (1,1) model is above 90％ and is higher than that from the established regression model in this paper, and corresponds with a distinction, which the grey prediction theory can meet expectations with small samples or data. Research results show that this established GM(I.I) model could provide valuable information for policy makers in their efforts to make appropriate technological policies within the Chinese high-tech industries.

关键词： grey theory technology input gm(1,1) method regression model Chinese high-tech industries

作者: Wuwei Li

作者单位: Zhengzhou Institute of Aeronautical Industry Management Zhengzhou, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2011 3rd International Conference on Advanced Computer Control(2011年IEEE第三届高端计算机控制国际会议 ICACC2011)

会议地点: 哈尔滨

会议语种:英文

页码: 88-92

在线出版日期: 2011-01-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）