Research on Logistics Volume Forecast Based on Improved GM (1,1) Model

摘要：

The defects of traditional GM(1,1) model for forecasting logistics volume are analyzed in the paper. A new residual GM(1,1) model is proposed, which uses Markov state transition matrix to judge the sign of the residual predictive value. The new model could improve forecast accuracy. The model is used in forecasting the logistics volume of Xindu city in Chengdu, Sichuan province, PR. China. The prediction results proved that the model is reliable and with high forecast accuracy.

关键词： grey forecast GM (1,1) model Markov state transition matrix residual

作者: Min-Song LI ZHao-Kang WEN

作者单位: College of Computer Science, Shaoguan University Shaoguan, China School of Logistic, Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Future Information Technology(2010年未来信息技术国际会议 ICFIT 2010)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 1062-1065

在线出版日期: 2010-12-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）