Modelling decision making in an uncertain environment
This article proposes a generative approach to decision making in a complex and uncertain environment, as n alternative to normative or descriptive approaches. A simple and intuitive graphical model provides management teams with a nonrestrictive framework for thinking through their decisions. The second half of the article proposes a mathematical model to estimate the multiple influences between decisions in a complex project, whether they are direct or indirect. This method is applied to a real situation, with simulations and results provided.
STCA decision making modelling decisions generative approach influences decision networks
RG BULLEN O BENNIS F KRATZ
British Telecom, Tour Ariane, 5 place de la Pyramide, BP 22,92088 Paris La Defense Cedex Institut PRISME, Universite dOrleans, France 21 Rue Loigny La Bataille 28000 CHARTRES
国际会议
2010 International Conference on Measurement and Control Engineering(2010年IEEE测量与控制工程国际会议 ICMCE2010)
成都
英文
180-184
2010-11-16(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)