Modelling decision making in an uncertain environment

摘要：

This article proposes a generative approach to decision making in a complex and uncertain environment, as n alternative to normative or descriptive approaches. A simple and intuitive graphical model provides management teams with a nonrestrictive framework for thinking through their decisions. The second half of the article proposes a mathematical model to estimate the multiple influences between decisions in a complex project, whether they are direct or indirect. This method is applied to a real situation, with simulations and results provided.

关键词： STCA decision making modelling decisions generative approach influences decision networks

作者: RG BULLEN O BENNIS F KRATZ

作者单位: British Telecom, Tour Ariane, 5 place de la Pyramide, BP 22,92088 Paris La Defense Cedex Institut PRISME, Universite dOrleans, France 21 Rue Loigny La Bataille 28000 CHARTRES

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2010 International Conference on Measurement and Control Engineering(2010年IEEE测量与控制工程国际会议 ICMCE2010)

会议地点: 成都

会议语种:英文

页码: 180-184

在线出版日期: 2010-11-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）