The Establishment and Analysis of Time Series Model of Per Capita GDP in Yunnan, China
The inertia and the time lag exist in the most of economic time series. Through the analysis of such inertia, the internal laws in the time series could be studied and the economic development could be predicted. Based on the actual conditions of per capita GDP from 1978 to 2007 in Yunnan Province, China, ARM A model is used to establish the time series model of per capita GDP in Yunnan Province and to analyze its law. Compared to the real value and the predicted value of per capita GDP from 2003 to 2007 of Yunnan Province, it concludes that the relative error is small (the rate of average error is -1.04％) and the model could predict the per capita GDP very well. Therefore, this paper provides an excellent tool which is used to predict the economic development.
per capita GDP times series ARM A model
Yang LIANG Bin HAN
School of Humanities and Economic Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing,China School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beiji
国际会议
厦门
英文
137-139
2010-10-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）