The Golden Age of Castings, 2005-2050, Revisited-Implications for Asian Metal Casters
The global economic recession of 2008/2009 has dealt a severe blow to metal casters. Production volumes have been reduced by 20 to even 50％, and the industry has experienced an unprecedented number of bankruptcies and closings in many countries. The prediction of doubling the rate of castings growth globally, first presented in 2005 in the American Foundry Society paper, The Golden Age of Castings, 2005 - 2050 , seems absurd given the current climate. However, the basic premise of the paper remAlns in tact, that is, castings will experience extraordinary growth over the next few decades. In fact, the severity of the economic recessions impact on the castings market, short term, has been partially caused by the rapid cooling in the pre-recession boom in mining, oil & gas extraction and refining, renewable energy, and infrastructure build-out in the emerging markets. This recession is only a pause in the action. What have changed dramatically in the five years since the original paper are the societal and political forces driving profound environmental and energy conservation changes globally. While the specific impacts of these changes cannot yet be entirely envisioned, without doubt the general trends now underway will create extraordinary opportunities, as well as threats, for metal casters. This paper represents a significant update on the original thinking behind the Golden Age of Castings, 2005 - 2050. While the conclusion of a boom in castings remAlns valid, there will likely be structural shifts in casting market segments of historic proportions, driven by the huge changes we have witnessed in economic, societal, and political changes of the past 5 years. This paper provides guidance on what Asian metal casters need to be doing now to ride the wave.
Michael W. Swartzlander
Cast Strategies LLC, Dublin, Ohio, USA
国际会议
69th World Foundry Congress(第69届世界铸造会议 WFC 2010)
杭州
英文
104-110
2010-10-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）