Analysis and Evaluation of Production Risk for the Main Grain-producing Areas of China

摘要：

The purpose of this paper is to assess the production risk for the main grain-producing areas of China, including thirteen provinces. A parametric approach is used to model grain-yield distribution for samples and the goodness-of-fit test is used to choose the best appropriate yield distribution. Parameters of the selected yield distribution are estimated through the maximum likelihood estimation approach. The Burr distribution is found to be the most appropriate parametric distribution to model grain-production risks for the six provinces of the main grain-producing areas in China. Findings also show that log-logistic distribution, normal distribution, logistic distribution and Johnson SB distribution are the best appropriate model for the different remaining provinces. The grain-production loss ratios of the provinces of the main grain-producing areas are between 5 and 15 percent, which is considered medium range in most regions. The highest production risks are located in the Northeast regions of China (Jilin and Liaoning) while the lowest is located in the Central regions of China (Hunan and Jiangxi province).

关键词： Production Risk Yield Distribution Risk Evaluation Main Grain-producing Areas

作者: XU Lei ZHANG Qiao

作者单位: Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-Warning Technology of Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing 100081

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 5th International Conference on Management Technology(2010年第五届太原技术管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 太原

会议语种:英文

页码: 64-68

在线出版日期: 2010-08-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）